The Dunning-Kruger effect, from Chernobyl to Cybersecurity

Why combine two risks? Why are we looking for inexperienced experts? Why does the ignorant rule and the competent chew bitter? I'll explain it to you Nuncio TENOR March 11, 2022

The Duga, "arc", was a Soviet early warning radar with over the horizon capability, presumably entered into service in 1976, when radio stations around the world began to receive a distinctive 10 hertz signal, the ticking of the woodpecker, mysterious and obsessive. This shortwave radio signal was detected until 1989 and then it is assumed that the Duga was deactivated. Of two examples, the main one was located near the Chernobyl power plant. But let's go in order. The carelessness of the research of “even non-expert” personnel on Cybersecurity seen recently brings to the surface a chronic problem: why is the cult of mediocrity successful and contagious? Those who delight in cooking will have noticed that often those who publish or show their dishes belong to the category of "presumptuous beginners": they get a dish, or a cake, and feel the immediate impulse to teach them, indeed they dispense wisdom and demythologization from consummate chef. One used to say, when you drop the spaghetti, just drop them, they'll take care of it, you don't need to mix them. Big bestiality: it is known that stiff spaghetti, leaning against the red-hot edge of the pot, burns and looks bad when served. Gently accompany them on the bottom. So, let's say you want to try something difficult, the cheese souffle. And it goes like this:

The first time everything goes smoothly. Paulo Coelho says in one of his books that when we try something new, the whole universe conspires to his success. The whole universe behind our souffle. We want to teach it right away (A). Then the repetition kills us, problems arise that we do not know how to remedy because we lack the basics and when we reach B here is the discouragement, but if we persevere it is the Socratic moment of knowing we do not know, the beginning of a conscious recovery. We will acquire skills with method and application. However, having reached the apex (C), a distant memory and fear of the past failure will limit our desire to disclose and show off, which will result in a CD loss of expressible potential. Not only that, but in a confrontation with the neophyte found in A we will place ourselves in submission. How much? Of CDs. He will pass for more expertise than us. Moral: those who have traveled the hard ABC valley instead of the logical, rational OD process still end up impoverishing the shared competence of things, what Mazzini thought when he defined democracy as the government of all under the guidance of the best. You will have recognized the "Dunning-Kruger effect" in the curve, experimentally attested at the end of the last millennium. The consequences: ignorant who overestimate themselves but also competent people who do not express their potential. There are those who travel the entire curve and burn their wings in the first part of the OAB and then stay low in the second. The cult of ignorance, incompetence, the "completely simple" (spaghetti ...) takes over. You virologist? All virologists. Are you energetic? All energetic. This is the myth of the national team coach: we are urban people, how many times have we heard this? Since we live in the fair of incompetence, and this paradoxically becomes a "distinctive competence", an approval mark, here we will look for people in the OA section, then for the landing of incompetence of Peter's law we will keep them on the hunchback and when they will be between B and C what will become of us? Now let's take a leap: that is, when the Dunning-Kruger effect becomes a general character of a group from an individual path. It is legitimate to make this extrapolation: in the transactional analysis (T.A. Harris, I am OK, you are OK - the final chapter) we find the example of various national characters (China, India, Nazi Germany, ...) seen in a parent / adult / child, and particularly of Americans as a people; originally a small child at the mercy of hostile elements, tornadoes, catastrophes, expelled from his mother nation, which grows and becomes strong but remains complexed by the assault, by the arrogance and reacts in the same violent way, buying the gun We can imagine Russia as a parent accustomed to the exercise of authority, be it czar, Stalin or Putin, in a flourishing of obtuse and omniscient socio-military bureaucracy, slow and always in quadruple copy. The Avulsed Power. Therefore, the current war events have brought the spotlight back to Chernobyl. Designed to detect the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles from the West, the Duga was built, as mentioned, near Chernobyl, near the nuclear power plant because it required a high consumption (200 MW). A height of 150 meters and a long one height equal to 700 meters place it among the largest antennas ever built. It was capable of detecting warheads over 2,500 km away. He embodied the idea of creating a radar system to be able to "see beyond the horizon". After the explosion of the reactor in the nearby nuclear power plant, the structure was evacuated: the ventilation system was not equipped with antinuclear filtering systems! and the radiation was transported to all internal spaces, contaminating them. He is still there, terrible and grotesque like the blind, to steal a verse from the poet Dino Campana. In any case, the maximum "detection distance" of this radar corresponded to an impact warning time of 10-15 minutes. It didn't save anyone, it just served to trigger the automatic response. What is the Duga if not the proof of a "general political presumption" of the Avulsed Power? A "parent" who thinks for a minute and then spends a month covering the back of his thoughts. In quadruple copy. They knew all about strategy and defense but were ignorant of a more general principle: that critical elements must be kept away from each other. That, close to uranium, everything must be anti-nuclear. That as highly strategic it would have been opportune for the enemy to destroy it and thus a global radioactive tragedy would have been unleashed. Today the blackout at the Chernobyl power plant is perhaps just a collateral war case and the cooling tanks are not drawn, essentially says the UN IAEA. Or perhaps a Ukrainian decision, in which case a highly controversial one? As with everything now, there is a double key to reading: factual and media (anything or rumor about Chernobyl puts shivers in your back and takes you to the pharmacy in search of iodine). If the last lesson (joke en passant) has been understood (right side of the track) we will see how the Russians will stay away from the power stations. Otherwise it won't be just a bad souffle.